The 2013 NHL Draft will take place in less than 2 weeks with the Sabres currently holding 10 picks over 7 rounds, including 2 first rounders.
This is the SIXTEENTH time Darcy Regier will be in charge of the selection process so we figure there’s a large enough body of work to determine whether or not he’s any good at this whole thing.
Let’s ignore all theoretical trade possibilities (any players who were already gone by the time the Sabres got around to picking) and check the data on the guys Buffalo picked (and left on the table) to answer one simple question about each of Darcy Regier’s first round selections– did he choose the right guy?
1998
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
NO
Kalinin never became the star 2-way defenseman that the Sabres hoped but with 539 NHL games under his belt, he can’t be considered a complete bust. That said, Robyn Regehr was taken with the next pick and his career easily trumps that of Kalinin. Simon Gagne and Scott Gomez have each won the Cup (Gomez twice) and appeared in the NHL All-Star Game (Gagne twice.)
1999
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
NO
It’s been 14 years and we’re still awaiting Heisten’s first NHL point. Don’t hold your breath. He retired from the Alaska Aces of the ECHL in January 2007 having been outscored in his NHL career by Maxime Ouellet, a goaltender who played 12 games in the league. Martin Havlat would’ve been a better choice. Nick Boynton, too.
2000
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
NO
“The Russian Concussion” is Buffalo’s poster boy for failed draft picks. Who needs gritty d-man Brooks Orpik from Amherst, NY or future Sabres captain Steve Ott or any of the TEN other first rounders who played triple-digit NHL games taken after Kryukov? Fair question: Did the dude ever actually exist?
2001
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
NO
Novotny is a somewhat passable NHL center who last skated in the league in 2007 and played this past season with HC Lev Praha of the KHL. Gleason and Steckel were both on the board at the time of the selection and both continue to be productive NHL players.
2002- pick A
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
YES
Ballard didn’t make his mark with the Sabres (shipped out in deal to acquire Chris Drury) but has been a solid pro. You weren’t going wrong here with Eminger, Semin, Higgins, or Gordon but Ballard has been good enough to be called the “right” guy for our purposes.
2002- pick B
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
YES
2003
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
YES
Round 1 in 2003 was LOADED with talent. With Eric Staal (268 G, 359 A in 690 games) off the board, Vanek’s been the best goal scorer of the bunch.
2004
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
RELUCTANT YES
“Nice job choosing Drew Stafford, Darcy” is not something we’re comfortable typing in a non-sarcastic manner but a scroll through the list yields Mike Green as the only “I guess I’d rather they picked him” guy… and it’s not clear cut. Close enough. You win this time, Darcy.
2005
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
OH, HELL NO.
The Sabres had their eyes on Luc Bourdon who went 3 picks earlier to Vancouver. Bourdon played in 27 NHL games before being killed in motorcycle accident. That’s 27 more games than Zagrapan ever played.
2006
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
NO
Ah, Dennis “Missing” Persson. After 4 unimpressive seasons of AHL competition between Portland and Rochester, the Sabres chose to pretend this Persson never existed. He’s now playing in the Swedish Elite League, calling into question everything we ever thought we knew about the word “elite.”
2007
Hey, it’s Buffalo Sabres power forward Dainius Zubrus.
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
HAD NO SELECTION
Thanks to a deadline deal to acquire Dainius Zubrus for the 2006-07 playoff push, the Sabres did not hold a first round selection in this draft. The UFA-to-be compiled 4 goals and 4 assists in 19 regular season games and 0 goals and 8 assists in 15 playoff games before leaving for the bright lights of Newark, New Jersey. For $5, you can get ripped off on Dainius Zubrus too!
2008- pick 1
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
(closing eyes, crossing fingers) YES
C’mon, Tyler. Pull it together and be awesome. Please?
2008- pick 2
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
YES
Statistically, the only remotely comparable player taken after Ennis in the remainder of the draft is Derek Stepan of the Rangers (2nd round.) Their goals/assists/points per game are nearly identical. Nobody else is close.
2009
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO SAY HERE.
Like everything when it comes to Zach Kassian, we’ve got ourselves a conundrum. Do you want him on your team? Probably not. Is there someone here you really wish you had instead? Probably not. Are you happy to have shipped him out to Vancouver in exchange for Cody Hodgson. Absolutely.
2010
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
TOO SOON TO TELL
Pysyk didn’t look out of place in his brief stint with the Sabres this past season and seems to have a good head on his shoulders.
2011
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY?
SURE
Only 4 of the 195 players taken after Armia have scored an NHL goal. Since being selected, he’s been a consistent performer– in Finland. Like all unknown commodities, the Sabres and their fans have high hopes that Armia is bright part of their future.
2012
DID REGIER CHOOSE THE RIGHT GUY(S)?
SURE
Grigorenko didn’t set the world in fire as an 18 year old rookie but, in his defense, he tied for 3rd in his draft class with 1 NHL goal and he’s one of only 6 guys to play and only 4 to score.
In his first season with the Amerks, Girgensons totaled 17 points and 28 PIM in the regular season and 3 goals in 3 AHL playoff games.
We’re still feeling pretty good about these guys.
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TOTALS:
- PLAYERS: 17
- YES- 6
- NO- 6
- MAYBE- 5
Sure, we went soft and gave Darcy Regier the benefit of the doubt near the end, but ultimately, we’re fans hoping for the best until it becomes apparent that we should throw in the towel.
We’ve got him batting .500.
Agree? Disagree? Let’s hear you.
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All NHL statistics courtesy of HockeyDB.com. If the numbers are right, thanks guys. If not… well, close enough.
Darcy needs to go. The scouting is horrible and his choices are even worse. Ruff was not the problem; Darcy was.
Steen would have been a far better choice than Paille.
It would be great to look at three or four other franchises and see how they’ve done under the same metrics. You’d probably have to weight the pick position though; the Sabres have only had one top ten pick (Vanek) in the drafts you analyzed and I wonder how many other teams have had as few top-ten picks as we have. Not trying to be a Darcy apologist here, but if you look at his data without comparing him to his peers, it’s hard to know whether or not these results are good, bad or meh.
@THEbucktastic
He’s a good GM. No other team in the division has won as many playoff series as him under his tenure…until Boston went to the finals this year. As if right now, they’ve both won 10 since 1998.
@Whoami05 @THEbucktastic And How many GM and Coaches has Boston gone through while Darcy has been here? Darcy is awful at reading when a team needs a jolt of freshness , and has hired OVERRATED scouting staffs. To make matter worse, he hired a coach who would’ve been better off on a team that was built through Free Agency. He does better with VETERANS as shown with the Veteran ridden rosters from the Cup run until 2001 and 05-07. He can’t develop talent. Add that with the fact Darcy likes to build his team through the draft, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Yet, Darcy still has a job.
For the Author, its easy to cherry pick these selections. The draft doesn’t end at the 1st round. The player’s abilities were there but they were not given the chance to develop, and any young kids making mistakes are buried on the bench. I can’t really say if a different player would’ve done better here. Whats the point, this organization is not a democracy, the position is not voted on by the fans (just imagine, ugh).
Statistics are like the Bible: read long enough and you can find a way to prove your point, whatever that point may be. Ultimately, the only statistic that should matter to this franchise is Stanley Cups. After being 0 for forever, it’s time for Darcy to go, regardless of his first round draft record (which again can’t really be evaluated until compared against his peers).
@Whoami05 @THEbucktastic And How many GM and Coaches has Boston gone through while Darcy has been here? Darcy is awful at reading when a team needs a jolt of freshness , and has hired OVERRATED scouting staffs. To make matter worse, he hired a coach who would’ve been better off on a team that was built through Free Agency. He does better with VETERANS as shown with the Veteran ridden rosters from the Cup run until 2001 and 05-07. He can’t develop talent. Add that with the fact Darcy likes to build his team through the draft, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Yet, Darcy still has a job.
For the Author, its easy to cherry pick these selections. The draft doesn’t end at the 1st round. The player’s abilities were there but they were not given the chance to develop, and any young kids making mistakes are buried on the bench. I can’t really say if a different player would’ve done better here. Whats the point, this organization is not a democracy, the position is not voted on by the fans (just imagine, ugh).
Based on the criteria that the player chosen has to be better than EVERY player picked after him, most GM’s would be lucky to hit .500. In the year that Tom Brady was picked, All GM’s struck out six times that year on their picks before he went in the 7th.
Based on the criteria that the pick made had to be better than EVERY player picked after him, most GM’s in the league would struggle to bat .500. In 2000, every NFL GM struck out about 5 times before Brady was picked…so not one GM in the league would get a yes that year…not even the patriots picked the right guy in the first round.
I’d much rather have ERIK FREAKING KARLSSON than Tyler Myers at this very moment. I’d also rather have Marcus Johansson or Dmitri Kulikov than Kassian…but again, Cody Hodgson, so meh. Only two places where I disagree with the author here.
I think the point this article is missing is the biggest problem with Darcy Reiger. He doesn’t know jack about how to build a whole team. Taken in a vacuum, almost all of his trades and draft picks are defensible. But as a whole, he has no ability to understand what he needs on the 3rd and 4th lines, or how to get defensive defensemen (acquiring washed up Rivet, and Regehr; letting McKee go to free agency when he gladly would have signed a $2 mil a year contract to stay). For that matter, look at the Paille trade. We got rid of a serviceable 3rd/4th line winger, and got picks in return, that turned into nothing. Based on our current complete lack of forward depth, I would guess we could use a guy like Paille.
And you can’t give Tyler Myers the nod for yes over Karlsson and Del Zotto right now. It’s hopeful thinking that Tyler will eventually surpass those two gentlemen, but right now, the answer is “NO” or at best “MAYBE”.