SabreNation is anxious. Anything less than an episode of “Extreme Makeover: Sabres Edition” this weekend could end in a fan revolt. The fan base is flat-out begging for some new blood and fresh faces.
Assumption number one in Buffalo is that the organization has the kind of asset stockpile deep enough to get any and every deal done. Foligno, Pysyk, McNabb, Armia, Enroth. Pick 12, pick 21, pick 42, pick 44.
In the (probable) event that our collective wishful thinking does not prevail, the Sabres may very well stand-pat and use their draft picks to add four more prospects to the heap. Cue the Price is Right loser horn.
We took a look at the last 20 years of Sabres draft history to better understand the kind of talent these top four picks might yield. Below is the list of draft choices in and around the place the team will draft this year.
Pick 12
2009 – 13 Zack Kassian
2008 – 12 Tyler Myers
2005 – 13 Marek Zagrapan
2004 – 13 Drew Stafford
2002 – 11 Keith Ballard
1995 – 14 Jay McKee
1992 – 11 David Cooper
Pick 21
2008 – 26 Tyler Ennis
2006 – 24 Dennis Persson
2002 – 20 Daniel Paille
1999 – 20 Barrett Heisten
1998 – 18 Dmitri Kalinin
1997 – 21 Mika Noronen
Picks 42 & 44
2008 – 44 Luke Adam
2006 – 46 Jhonas Enroth
2005 – 48 Philipp Gogulla
2004 – 43 Mike Funk
2000 – 48 Gerard Dicaire
1998 – 47 Norm Milley
1997 – 48 Henrik Tallinder
1995 – 42 Mark Dutiaume
1994 – 43 Curtis Brown
If we apply some back of the napkin analysis… you could assume the following:
- There’s about a 70% chance the Sabres draft a decent “NHL caliber” player with the 12th overall pick. (5 out of 7)
- The 21st pick is a 50-50 proposition. (Ennis, Paille, Kalinin)
- Second round picks have about a 35% hit rate. (Tallinder & Brown. Adam & Enroth “might” be.)
Taking it a bit further, the Sabres have a 95% chance of landing at least 1 NHL caliber player with these 4 picks and about a 5% chance of hitting on all four picks.
Now that we have this straight, let’s see some wheeling and dealing Darcy!
